3b1b-manim/from_3b1b/active/bayes/beta.py

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from manimlib.imports import *
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from from_3b1b.active.bayes.beta_helpers import *
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import scipy.stats
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OUTPUT_DIRECTORY = "bayes/beta"
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class Histogram(Axes):
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CONFIG = {
"x_min": 0,
"x_max": 10,
"y_min": 0,
"y_max": 1,
"axis_config": {
"include_tip": False,
},
"y_axis_config": {
"tick_frequency": 0.2,
},
"height": 5,
"width": 10,
"y_axis_numbers_to_show": range(20, 120, 20),
"y_axis_label_height": 0.25,
"include_h_lines": True,
"h_line_style": {
"stroke_width": 1,
"stroke_color": LIGHT_GREY,
}
}
def __init__(self, **kwargs):
super().__init__(**kwargs)
self.resize()
self.center()
self.add_y_axis_labels()
if self.include_h_lines:
self.add_h_lines()
self.add_bars()
# Initializing methods
def resize(self):
self.x_axis.set_width(
self.width,
stretch=True,
about_point=self.c2p(0, 0),
)
self.y_axis.set_height(
self.height,
stretch=True,
about_point=self.c2p(0, 0),
)
def add_y_axis_labels(self):
labels = VGroup()
for value in self.y_axis_numbers_to_show:
label = Integer(value, unit="\\%")
label.set_height(self.y_axis_label_height)
label.next_to(self.y_axis.n2p(0.01 * value), LEFT)
labels.add(label)
self.y_axis_labels = labels
self.y_axis.add(labels)
return self
def add_h_lines(self):
self.h_lines = VGroup()
for tick in self.y_axis.tick_marks:
line = Line(**self.h_line_style)
line.match_width(self.x_axis)
line.move_to(tick.get_center(), LEFT)
self.h_lines.add(line)
self.add(self.h_lines)
def add_bars(self):
pass
# Bar manipulations
# Scenes
class BarChartTest(Scene):
def construct(self):
bar_chart = BarChart()
bar_chart.to_edge(DOWN)
self.add(bar_chart)
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class Thumbnail(Scene):
def construct(self):
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p1 = "$96\\%$"
p2 = "$93\\%$"
n1 = "50"
n2 = "200"
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t2c = {
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p1: BLUE,
p2: YELLOW,
n1: BLUE_C,
n2: YELLOW,
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}
kw = {"tex_to_color_map": t2c}
text = VGroup(
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TextMobject(f"{p1} with {n1} reviews", **kw),
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TextMobject("vs.", **kw),
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TextMobject(f"{p2} with {n2} reviews", **kw),
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)
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fix_percent(text[0].get_part_by_tex(p1)[-1])
fix_percent(text[2].get_part_by_tex(p2)[-1])
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text.scale(2)
text.arrange(DOWN, buff=LARGE_BUFF)
text.set_width(FRAME_WIDTH - 1)
self.add(text)
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class ShowThreeCases(Scene):
def construct(self):
titles = self.get_titles()
reviews = self.get_reviews(titles)
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for review in reviews:
review.match_x(reviews[2])
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# Introduce everything
self.play(LaggedStartMap(
FadeInFrom, titles,
lambda m: (m, DOWN),
lag_ratio=0.2
))
self.play(LaggedStart(*[
LaggedStartMap(
FadeInFromLarge, review,
lag_ratio=0.1
)
for review in reviews
], lag_ratio=0.1))
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self.add(reviews)
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self.wait()
self.play(ShowCreationThenFadeAround(reviews[2]))
self.wait()
# Suspicious of 100%
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randy = Randolph()
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randy.flip()
randy.set_height(2)
randy.next_to(
reviews[0], RIGHT, LARGE_BUFF,
aligned_edge=UP,
)
randy.look_at(reviews[0])
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self.play(FadeIn(randy))
self.play(randy.change, "sassy")
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self.play(Blink(randy))
self.wait()
self.play(FadeOut(randy))
# Low number means it could be a fluke.
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review = reviews[0]
review.generate_target()
review.target.scale(2)
review.target.arrange(RIGHT)
review.target.move_to(review)
self.play(MoveToTarget(review))
alt_negs = [1, 2, 1, 0]
alt_reviews = VGroup()
for k in alt_negs:
alt_reviews.add(self.get_plusses_and_minuses(titles[0], 1, 10, k))
for ar in alt_reviews:
for m1, m2 in zip(ar, review):
m1.replace(m2)
alt_percents = VGroup(*[
TexMobject(str(10 * (10 - k)) + "\\%")
for k in alt_negs
])
hundo = titles[0][0]
for ap in alt_percents:
fix_percent(ap.family_members_with_points()[-1])
ap.match_style(hundo)
ap.match_height(hundo)
ap.move_to(hundo, RIGHT)
last_review = review
last_percent = hundo
for ar, ap in zip(alt_reviews, alt_percents):
self.play(
FadeInFrom(ar, 0.5 * DOWN, lag_ratio=0.2),
FadeOut(last_review),
FadeInFrom(ap, 0.5 * DOWN),
FadeOutAndShift(last_percent, 0.5 * UP),
run_time=1.5
)
last_review = ar
last_percent = ap
self.remove(last_review, last_percent)
self.add(titles, *reviews)
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# How do you think about the tradeoff?
p1 = titles[1][0]
p2 = titles[2][0]
nums = VGroup(p1, p2)
lower_reviews = reviews[1:]
lower_reviews.generate_target()
lower_reviews.target.arrange(LEFT, buff=1.5)
lower_reviews.target.center()
nums.generate_target()
for nt, review in zip(nums.target, lower_reviews.target):
nt.next_to(review, UP, MED_LARGE_BUFF)
nums.target[0].match_y(nums.target[1])
self.clear()
self.play(
MoveToTarget(lower_reviews),
MoveToTarget(nums),
FadeOut(titles[1][1:]),
FadeOut(titles[2][1:]),
FadeOut(titles[0]),
FadeOut(reviews[0]),
run_time=2,
)
greater_than = TexMobject(">")
greater_than.scale(2)
greater_than.move_to(midpoint(
reviews[2].get_right(),
reviews[1].get_left(),
))
less_than = greater_than.copy().flip()
less_than.match_height(nums[0][0])
less_than.match_y(nums, DOWN)
nums.generate_target()
nums.target[1].next_to(less_than, LEFT, MED_LARGE_BUFF)
nums.target[0].next_to(less_than, RIGHT, MED_LARGE_BUFF)
squares = VGroup(*[
SurroundingRectangle(
submob, buff=0.01,
stroke_color=LIGHT_GREY,
stroke_width=1,
)
for submob in reviews[2]
])
squares.shuffle()
self.play(
LaggedStartMap(
ShowCreationThenFadeOut, squares,
lag_ratio=0.5 / len(squares),
run_time=3,
),
Write(greater_than),
)
self.wait()
self.play(
MoveToTarget(nums),
TransformFromCopy(
greater_than, less_than,
)
)
self.wait()
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def get_titles(self):
titles = VGroup(
TextMobject(
"$100\\%$ \\\\",
"10 reviews"
),
TextMobject(
"$96\\%$ \\\\",
"50 reviews"
),
TextMobject(
"$93\\%$ \\\\",
"200 reviews"
),
)
colors = [PINK, BLUE, YELLOW]
for title, color in zip(titles, colors):
fix_percent(title[0][-1])
title[0].set_color(color)
titles.scale(1.25)
titles.arrange(DOWN, buff=1.5)
titles.to_corner(UL)
return titles
def get_reviews(self, titles):
return VGroup(
self.get_plusses_and_minuses(
titles[0], 5, 2, 0,
),
self.get_plusses_and_minuses(
titles[1], 5, 10, 2,
),
self.get_plusses_and_minuses(
titles[2], 8, 25, 14,
),
)
def get_plusses_and_minuses(self, title, n_rows, n_cols, n_minus):
check = TexMobject("\\checkmark", color=GREEN)
cross = TexMobject("\\times", color=RED)
checks = VGroup(*[
check.copy() for x in range(n_rows * n_cols)
])
checks.arrange_in_grid(n_rows=n_rows, n_cols=n_cols)
checks.scale(0.5)
# if checks.get_height() > title.get_height():
# checks.match_height(title)
checks.next_to(title, RIGHT, LARGE_BUFF)
for check in random.sample(list(checks), n_minus):
mob = cross.copy()
mob.replace(check, dim_to_match=0)
check.become(mob)
return checks
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class WhatsTheModel(Scene):
def construct(self):
self.add_questions()
self.introduce_buyer_and_seller()
for x in range(3):
self.play(*self.experience_animations(self.seller, self.buyer))
self.wait()
self.add_probability_label()
self.bring_up_goal()
def add_questions(self):
questions = VGroup(
TextMobject("What's the model?"),
TextMobject("What are you optimizing?"),
)
for question, vect in zip(questions, [LEFT, RIGHT]):
question.move_to(vect * FRAME_WIDTH / 4)
questions.arrange(DOWN, buff=LARGE_BUFF)
questions.scale(1.5)
# Intro questions
self.play(FadeInFrom(questions[0]))
self.play(FadeInFrom(questions[1], UP))
self.wait()
questions[1].save_state()
self.questions = questions
def introduce_buyer_and_seller(self):
questions = self.questions
seller = Randolph(mode="coin_flip_1")
seller.to_edge(LEFT)
seller.label = TextMobject("Seller")
buyer = Mortimer()
buyer.to_edge(RIGHT)
buyer.label = TextMobject("Buyer")
VGroup(buyer, seller).shift(DOWN)
labels = VGroup()
for pi in seller, buyer:
pi.set_height(2)
pi.label.scale(1.5)
pi.label.next_to(pi, DOWN, MED_LARGE_BUFF)
labels.add(pi.label)
self.play(
LaggedStartMap(
FadeInFromDown, VGroup(seller, buyer, *labels),
lag_ratio=0.2
),
questions[0].to_edge, UP,
questions[1].set_opacity, 0.5,
questions[1].scale, 0.25,
questions[1].to_corner, UR,
)
self.wait()
self.buyer = buyer
self.seller = seller
def add_probability_label(self):
seller = self.seller
buyer = self.buyer
label = get_prob_positive_experience_label()
label.add(TexMobject("=").next_to(label, RIGHT))
rhs = DecimalNumber(0.75)
rhs.next_to(label, RIGHT)
rhs.align_to(label[0], DOWN)
label.add(rhs)
label.scale(1.5)
label.next_to(seller, UP, MED_LARGE_BUFF, aligned_edge=LEFT)
rhs.set_color(YELLOW)
brace = Brace(rhs, UP)
success_rate = brace.get_text("Success rate")[0]
s_sym = brace.get_tex("s").scale(1.5, about_edge=DOWN)
success_rate.match_color(rhs)
s_sym.match_color(rhs)
self.add(label)
self.play(
GrowFromCenter(brace),
FadeInFrom(success_rate, 0.5 * DOWN)
)
self.wait()
self.play(
TransformFromCopy(success_rate[0], s_sym),
FadeOutAndShift(success_rate, 0.1 * RIGHT, lag_ratio=0.1),
)
for x in range(2):
self.play(*self.experience_animations(seller, buyer, arc=30 * DEGREES))
self.wait()
grey_box = SurroundingRectangle(rhs, buff=SMALL_BUFF)
grey_box.set_stroke(GREY_E, 0.5)
grey_box.set_fill(GREY_D)
lil_q_marks = TexMobject("???")
lil_q_marks.scale(0.5)
lil_q_marks.next_to(buyer, UP)
self.play(
FadeOutAndShift(rhs, 0.5 * DOWN),
FadeInFrom(grey_box, 0.5 * UP),
FadeInFrom(lil_q_marks, DOWN),
buyer.change, "confused", grey_box,
)
rhs.set_opacity(0)
for x in range(2):
self.play(*self.experience_animations(seller, buyer, arc=30 * DEGREES))
self.play(buyer.change, "confused", lil_q_marks)
self.play(Blink(buyer))
self.prob_group = VGroup(
label, grey_box, brace, s_sym,
)
self.buyer_q_marks = lil_q_marks
def bring_up_goal(self):
prob_group = self.prob_group
questions = self.questions
questions.generate_target()
questions.target[1].replace(questions[0], dim_to_match=1)
questions.target[1].match_style(questions[0])
questions.target[0].replace(questions[1], dim_to_match=1)
questions.target[0].match_style(questions[1])
prob_group.generate_target()
prob_group.target.scale(0.5)
prob_group.target.next_to(self.seller, RIGHT)
self.play(
FadeOut(self.buyer_q_marks),
self.buyer.change, "pondering", questions[0],
self.seller.change, "pondering", questions[0],
MoveToTarget(prob_group),
MoveToTarget(questions),
)
self.play(self.seller.change, "coin_flip_1")
for x in range(3):
self.play(*self.experience_animations(self.seller, self.buyer))
self.wait()
#
def experience_animations(self, seller, buyer, arc=-30 * DEGREES):
positive = (random.random() < 0.75)
words = TextMobject(
"Positive\\\\experience"
if positive else
"Negative\\\\experience"
)
words.set_color(GREEN if positive else RED)
if positive:
new_mode = random.choice([
"hooray",
"happy",
])
else:
new_mode = random.choice([
"tired",
"angry",
"sad",
])
words.move_to(seller.get_corner(UR))
result = [
ApplyMethod(
words.move_to, buyer.get_corner(UL),
path_arc=arc,
run_time=2
),
VFadeInThenOut(words, run_time=2),
ApplyMethod(
buyer.change, new_mode, seller.eyes,
run_time=2,
rate_func=squish_rate_func(smooth, 0.5, 1),
),
ApplyMethod(
seller.change, "coin_flip_2", buyer.eyes,
rate_func=there_and_back,
),
]
return result
class IsSellerOne100(Scene):
def construct(self):
self.add_review()
self.show_probability()
self.show_random_numbers()
def add_review(self):
reviews = VGroup(*[TexMobject("\\checkmark") for x in range(10)])
reviews.arrange(RIGHT)
reviews.scale(2)
reviews.set_color(GREEN)
reviews.next_to(ORIGIN, UP)
blanks = VGroup(*[
Line(LEFT, RIGHT).match_width(rev).next_to(rev, DOWN, SMALL_BUFF)
for rev in reviews
])
blanks.shift(0.25 * reviews[0].get_width() * LEFT)
label = TextMobject(
" out of ",
)
tens = VGroup(*[Integer(10) for x in range(2)])
tens[0].next_to(label, LEFT)
tens[1].next_to(label, RIGHT)
tens.set_color(GREEN)
label.add(tens)
label.scale(2)
label.next_to(reviews, DOWN, LARGE_BUFF)
self.add(label)
self.add(blanks)
tens[0].to_count = reviews
self.play(
ShowIncreasingSubsets(reviews, int_func=np.ceil),
UpdateFromAlphaFunc(
tens[0],
lambda m, a: m.set_color(
interpolate_color(RED, GREEN, a)
).set_value(len(m.to_count))
),
run_time=2,
rate_func=bezier([0, 0, 1, 1]),
)
self.wait()
self.review_group = VGroup(reviews, blanks, label)
def show_probability(self):
review_group = self.review_group
prob_label = get_prob_positive_experience_label()
prob_label.add(TexMobject("=").next_to(prob_label, RIGHT))
rhs = DecimalNumber(1)
rhs.next_to(prob_label, RIGHT)
rhs.set_color(YELLOW)
prob_label.add(rhs)
prob_label.scale(2)
prob_label.to_corner(UL)
q_mark = TexMobject("?")
q_mark.set_color(YELLOW)
q_mark.match_height(rhs)
q_mark.reference = rhs
q_mark.add_updater(lambda m: m.next_to(m.reference, RIGHT))
rhs_rect = SurroundingRectangle(rhs, buff=0.2)
rhs_rect.set_color(RED)
not_necessarily = TextMobject("Not necessarily!")
not_necessarily.set_color(RED)
not_necessarily.scale(1.5)
not_necessarily.next_to(prob_label, DOWN, 1.5)
arrow = Arrow(
not_necessarily.get_top(),
rhs_rect.get_corner(DL),
buff=MED_SMALL_BUFF,
)
arrow.set_color(RED)
rhs.set_value(0)
self.play(
ChangeDecimalToValue(rhs, 1),
UpdateFromAlphaFunc(
prob_label,
lambda m, a: m.set_opacity(a),
),
FadeIn(q_mark),
)
self.wait()
self.play(
ShowCreation(rhs_rect),
Write(not_necessarily),
ShowCreation(arrow),
review_group.to_edge, DOWN,
run_time=1,
)
self.wait()
self.play(
ChangeDecimalToValue(rhs, 0.95),
FadeOut(rhs_rect),
FadeOut(arrow),
FadeOut(not_necessarily),
)
self.wait()
self.prob_label_group = VGroup(
prob_label, rhs, q_mark,
)
def show_random_numbers(self):
prob_label_group = self.prob_label_group
random.seed(2)
rows = VGroup(*[
VGroup(*[
Integer(
random.randint(0, 99)
).move_to(0.85 * x * RIGHT)
for x in range(10)
])
for y in range(10 * 2)
])
rows.arrange_in_grid(n_cols=2, buff=MED_LARGE_BUFF)
rows[:10].shift(LEFT)
rows.set_height(5.5)
rows.center().to_edge(DOWN)
lt_95 = VGroup(*[
mob
for row in rows
for mob in row
if mob.get_value() < 95
])
row_rects = VGroup(*[
SurroundingRectangle(row)
for row in rows
if all([m.get_value() < 95 for m in row])
])
row_rects.set_stroke(YELLOW, 1)
self.play(
LaggedStartMap(
ShowIncreasingSubsets, rows,
run_time=3,
lag_ratio=0.25,
),
FadeOutAndShift(self.review_group, DOWN),
prob_label_group.set_height, 0.75,
prob_label_group.to_corner, UL,
)
self.wait()
self.play(
lt_95.set_color, BLUE,
lt_95.set_stroke, GREEN, 1, {"background": True},
)
self.wait()
self.play(LaggedStartMap(ShowCreation, row_rects))
self.wait()
class LookAtAllPossibleSuccessRates(Scene):
def construct(self):
axes = get_beta_dist_axes()
# Add a seller
# Point out y ais
self.embed()
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class AskAboutUnknownProbabilities(Scene):
def construct(self):
# Setup
unknown_title, prob_title = titles = self.get_titles()
v_line = Line(UP, DOWN)
v_line.set_height(FRAME_HEIGHT)
v_line.set_stroke([WHITE, LIGHT_GREY], 3)
h_line = Line(LEFT, RIGHT)
h_line.set_width(FRAME_WIDTH)
h_line.next_to(titles, DOWN)
processes = VGroup(
get_random_coin(shuffle_time=1),
get_random_die(shuffle_time=1.20),
get_random_card(shuffle_time=2),
)
processes.arrange(DOWN, buff=0.7)
processes.next_to(unknown_title, DOWN, LARGE_BUFF)
processes_rect = BackgroundRectangle(processes)
processes_rect.set_fill(BLACK, 1)
prob_labels = VGroup(
TexMobject("P(", "00", ")", "=", "1 / 2"),
TexMobject("P(", "00", ")", "=", "1 / 6}"),
TexMobject("P(", "00", ")", "=", "1 / 52}"),
)
prob_labels.scale(1.5)
prob_labels.arrange(DOWN, aligned_edge=LEFT)
prob_labels.match_x(prob_title)
for pl, pr in zip(prob_labels, processes):
pl.match_y(pr)
content = pr[1].copy()
content.replace(pl[1], dim_to_match=0)
pl.submobjects[1] = content
# Putting numbers to the unknown
number_rects = VGroup(*[
SurroundingRectangle(pl[-1])
for pl in prob_labels
])
number_rects.set_stroke(YELLOW, 2)
for pl in prob_labels:
pl.save_state()
pl[:3].match_x(prob_title)
pl[3:].match_x(prob_title)
pl.set_opacity(0)
self.add(processes)
self.play(
LaggedStartMap(FadeInFromDown, titles),
LaggedStart(
ShowCreation(v_line),
ShowCreation(h_line),
),
run_time=1
)
self.wait(2)
self.play(
LaggedStartMap(Restore, prob_labels),
run_time=3,
lag_ratio=0.3,
)
self.play(
LaggedStartMap(
ShowCreationThenFadeOut,
number_rects,
run_time=3,
)
)
self.wait(2)
# Highlight coin flip
fade_rect = BackgroundRectangle(
VGroup(prob_labels[1:], processes[1:]),
buff=MED_SMALL_BUFF,
)
fade_rect.set_width(FRAME_WIDTH, stretch=True)
fade_rect.set_fill(BLACK, 0.8)
prob_half = prob_labels[0]
half = prob_half[-1]
half_underline = Line(LEFT, RIGHT)
half_underline.set_width(half.get_width() + MED_SMALL_BUFF)
half_underline.next_to(half, DOWN, buff=SMALL_BUFF)
half_underline.set_stroke(YELLOW, 3)
self.add(fade_rect, v_line, prob_half)
self.play(FadeIn(fade_rect))
self.wait(2)
self.play(
ShowCreation(half_underline),
half.set_color, YELLOW,
)
self.play(FadeOut(half_underline))
self.wait(4)
# Transition to question
processes.suspend_updating()
self.play(
LaggedStart(
FadeOutAndShift(unknown_title, UP),
FadeOutAndShift(prob_title, UP),
lag_ratio=0.2,
),
FadeOutAndShift(h_line, UP, lag_ratio=0.1),
FadeOutAndShift(processes, LEFT, lag_ratio=0.1),
FadeOut(prob_labels[1]),
FadeOut(prob_labels[2]),
ApplyMethod(fade_rect.set_fill, BLACK, 1, remover=True),
v_line.rotate, 90 * DEGREES,
v_line.shift, 0.6 * FRAME_HEIGHT * UP,
prob_half.center,
prob_half.to_edge, UP,
run_time=2,
)
self.clear()
self.add(prob_half)
arrow = Vector(UP)
arrow.next_to(half, DOWN)
question = TextMobject("What exactly does\\\\this mean?")
question.next_to(arrow, DOWN)
self.play(
GrowArrow(arrow),
FadeInFrom(question, UP),
)
self.wait(2)
self.play(
FadeOutAndShift(question, RIGHT),
Rotate(arrow, 90 * DEGREES),
VFadeOut(arrow),
)
# Show long run averages
self.show_many_coins(20, 50)
self.show_many_coins(40, 100)
# Make probability itself unknown
q_marks = TexMobject("???")
q_marks.set_color(YELLOW)
q_marks.replace(half, dim_to_match=0)
randy = Randolph(mode="confused")
randy.center()
randy.look_at(prob_half)
self.play(
FadeOutAndShift(half, UP),
FadeInFrom(q_marks, DOWN),
)
self.play(FadeIn(randy))
self.play(Blink(randy))
self.wait()
# self.embed()
def get_titles(self):
unknown_label = TextMobject("Unknown event")
prob_label = TextMobject("Probability")
titles = VGroup(unknown_label, prob_label)
titles.scale(1.5)
unknown_label.move_to(FRAME_WIDTH * LEFT / 4)
prob_label.move_to(FRAME_WIDTH * RIGHT / 4)
titles.to_edge(UP, buff=MED_SMALL_BUFF)
titles.set_color(BLUE)
return titles
def show_many_coins(self, n_rows, n_cols):
coin_choices = VGroup(
get_coin(BLUE_E, "H"),
get_coin(RED_E, "T"),
)
coin_choices.set_stroke(width=0)
coins = VGroup(*[
random.choice(coin_choices).copy()
for x in range(n_rows * n_cols)
])
def organize_coins(coin_group):
coin_group.scale(1 / coin_group[0].get_height())
coin_group.arrange_in_grid(n_rows=n_rows)
coin_group.set_width(FRAME_WIDTH - 1)
coin_group.to_edge(DOWN, MED_LARGE_BUFF)
organize_coins(coins)
sorted_coins = VGroup()
for coin in coins:
coin.generate_target()
sorted_coins.add(coin.target)
sorted_coins.submobjects.sort(key=lambda m: m.symbol)
organize_coins(sorted_coins)
self.play(LaggedStartMap(
FadeInFrom, coins,
lambda m: (m, 0.2 * DOWN),
run_time=3,
rate_func=linear
))
self.wait()
self.play(LaggedStartMap(
MoveToTarget, coins,
path_arc=30 * DEGREES,
run_time=2,
lag_ratio=1 / len(coins),
))
self.wait()
self.play(FadeOut(coins))